No Confident Optimism in the Market Yet

SP500

Key zone: 6,650 - 6,700

Buy: 6,700 (on strong positive fundamentals); target 6,850; StopLoss 6,650

Sell: 6,600 (on a pullback after a retest of 6,650); target 6,450-6,400; StopLoss 6,670

On Tuesday, the stock market bought back the morning drop, but yesterday investors sold into the morning rally.

In Asia, indexes rose amid a strong earnings season in the U.S. and a powerful rally in the semiconductor sector: Nikkei +0.8%, KOSPI +1.8%, Taiwan Weighted +1.4%, ASX +1.1%. Investor optimism was supported by record results from microchip manufacturers and expectations of monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, gold renewed its all-time high — $4,241 per ounce — reflecting a flight to safe-haven assets amid growing trade risks and expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Earlier, investors reacted to bank reports, Fed statements, and developments in the U.S.–China trade conflict. The Dow Jones added 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% and 0.76%, respectively. During the session, the S&P 500 fluctuated between a 1.5% drop and a 0.39% gain, reflecting elevated market volatility.

Today, despite another verbal intervention from Trump, the market remains calm, though the VIX has risen slightly. S&P 500 futures are trying to recover yesterday’s losses but appear stuck in the 6630–6680 range.

Gold and silver continue to rise. Media outlets report queues of regular bank clients purchasing physical (bullion) gold — a clear sign of panic.

The strongest pressure on market sentiment came not from company earnings but from China’s new sanctions against five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean firm Hanwha Ocean and Trump’s threat to impose an embargo on vegetable oil supplies to China.

London stocks began to decline following weak U.K. GDP data. Investors await quarterly reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Abbott Labs, and ASML, which could set the tone for the market in the coming days.

Bitcoin came under renewed pressure: the price dropped to $111,000, and spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $94 million. Trading activity fell by more than a quarter, indicating investor caution.

Despite the negative backdrop and “bearish” chart patterns, several deferred positive triggers remain:

• De-escalation of the U.S.–China trade war — possible at any time (with a single Trump tweet).
• End of the government shutdown — Democrats and Republicans could reach an agreement any day.
• In crypto, the flash crash aftermath has not yet settled, confidence is falling, and capital may return to traditional assets.

Overall, geopolitical and economic news has created a complex backdrop for global markets. U.S. trade threats toward China, political tension in France, a major crypto industry investigation, and the IMF’s new forecast for global economic growth are all increasing uncertainty.

So we act wisely and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!