Trump and Tariff Letters: The Series Continues

Of course, the starring role in this show of grateful viewers went to American voters. The problem is that so far, apart from beautiful statements, preliminary negotiations, and other empty noise, nothing significant has happened.

In fact, there are only partial agreements with Vietnam, the UK, and with China regarding rare earth metals. That hardly looks like a global success. Changing the dates would be a disgrace Trump will not accept. It is much easier to send letters with threats.

Bessent once again declared that the United States is close to signing several trade agreements, but there is only one day left and no results. More than 100 countries that have not even tried to discuss tariffs will receive notices stating that they will be subject to fixed tariff rates.

Last week, Trump claimed he would not extend the suspension of tariffs after July 8, but on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and US Secretary of Commerce Lutnik announced that the suspension would continue until August 1.

According to an EU diplomatic insider, Trump will divide all countries into three groups: those with agreements in place, those with an extension of the suspension until August 1, and a third group — the most stubborn — who will still get high tariffs starting August 1. This most problematic group includes everyone who resists Trump’s baseline tariffs of 10% and refuses to buy US agricultural products. However, Donnie still hopes to reach agreements with these counterparties if interesting offers appear.

In the latest news, Trump stated that any country supporting the “anti-American” BRICS policy (meaning settlements in national currencies) will be subject to an additional 10% tariff with no exceptions. BRICS representatives currently consider this statement another failed joke.

So for now, the scenario for life after the July 9 deadline remains unchanged: any risk-off move, if it happens, will be short-term, while global risk appetite is preserved. Large capital still counts on agreements before August 1 or a further extension of the tariff suspension. Overall, we believe the global intrigue will be postponed until July 31, when Trump’s tariffs could be canceled altogether by a Supreme Court decision.

But while Trump keeps sending his letters, stock indexes will remain nervous. Possibly quite seriously.

So let’s behave rationally and avoid unnecessary risks.

Profits to y’all!